Andrew Abbott takes the mound Tuesday night as the Cincinnati Reds open a series at Petco Park carrying a four-game losing streak into one of the most important stretches of their season. The Reds are 31-33, fifth in the NL Central, but still only 2 1/2 games out of a wild-card spot.
The matchup has search traffic written all over it because the Padres are in almost the same spot, just on the other side of the standings. San Diego is 33-31, third in the NL West and a half-game out of the wild-card picture even after losing 11 of 13. The clubs arrive in June with very little margin for error and enough recent damage to make every start feel heavier than it should this early in the summer.
Abbott gives Cincinnati a reason to believe it can stop the slide. He is 4-3 with a 4.06 ERA, but he has been much sharper lately, posting a 2.25 ERA over his last seven starts with four quality outings in that span. The left-hander has also worked to a 2.81 ERA on the road, and he has been a problem for San Diego in a small sample, going 2-0 with a 0.98 ERA in four career starts against the Padres. Last year, the Reds won four of six games against them.
That edge matters because the Reds have not been doing much else cleanly. Their minus-51 run differential and 23rd-ranked rotation ERA of 4.60 reflect a team that has spent too much time chasing games, and their bullpen has been even shakier with a 5.12 ERA that ranks 29th. They do have a few bats that can carry a night, including Matt McLain, who opened June with three homers and a 1.412 OPS, and Spencer Steer, who has a.939 OPS this month with two homers.
San Diego has had its own problems, especially at home, where it is 17-18 and already sits on a minus-18 run differential. The Padres opened June with a.172/.245/.274 line through their first six games and have managed only five home runs this month. Freddy Fermin has been one of the few bright spots with two homers and a 1.182 OPS, while Manny Machado has scuffled to a.375 OPS and Xander Bogaerts has gone 1-for-19 for a.234 OPS to start June.
The uneasy part for both teams is that neither is so far out that a bad week can be shrugged off. Cincinnati is still close enough to the race that the losing streak has not knocked it out, and San Diego is close enough that every loss keeps piling pressure on a club already eight games behind the Dodgers in the division. The Padres will counter Abbott with Walker Buehler, who is 3-3 with a 4.53 ERA and has been much better at home than away from Petco Park.
That leaves Abbott with a chance to do more than just steady the Reds for one night. If he extends the form that has carried him through his last seven starts, Cincinnati can leave Petco Park with its season narrative changed from skid to survival, at least for a day. If not, the standings gap will still be small, but the feel of the race may start to slip away from them.
