BlackBerry’s newest investment case is not about phones. It is about QNX, the embedded software platform that powers safety-critical systems in 275 million vehicles worldwide, and that has become the core of the company’s AI argument as investors try to decide whether the stock’s rally has gone too far.
The question is landing now because BlackBerry shares have climbed 156% over the past year, while Nokia has surged 219%, yet analysts still see deep downside in both names. BlackBerry’s average price target is $4.18, about 59% below where the stock has been trading, and only one of the eight analysts covering it rates it a Buy. Nokia’s average target is $11.38, or 34% below current levels, even after Northland on Wednesday lifted its view to $20 from $13 and kept an Outperform rating.
That split explains why the old handset names keep showing up in the same conversation. Both companies were casualties of the smartphone era, but each rebuilt for a different future. Nokia sold its handset business to Microsoft in 2014 and remade itself around telecom infrastructure. BlackBerry exited smartphones and turned to software, cybersecurity and embedded operating systems. In BlackBerry’s case, QNX has become the asset investors point to when they talk about AI spending in physical systems, from vehicles to other machines that cannot afford to fail.
The scale of that bet is what gives BlackBerry’s story some weight. QNX is already inside a large installed base, and that gives the company something more concrete than the usual AI pitch about software that might someday arrive. Still, the market has not been willing to price BlackBerry as if that future is settled. The stock’s sharp gain sits beside a view from analysts that leaves little room for error, with six Holds and one Sell among the eight firms covering it.
Nokia’s run shows the same disconnect. In the first quarter of 2026, the company booked 1 billion euros in AI and cloud orders, and AI and cloud revenue rose 49% from a year earlier. Justin Hotard said customers are placing commitments that stretch into 2027, and he pointed to stronger demand for 800-gig networking products used inside AI clusters. He also said the only real constraint is supply chain, not demand, and added that if more supply were available, Nokia could probably fill it.
Hotard went further, saying demand for indium phosphide may need to increase by 100x to 1,000x compared with just a few years ago. That is the kind of language that has helped send Nokia higher, but it also underscores the gap between the market’s enthusiasm and Wall Street’s caution. Among 23 analysts covering Nokia, three rate it Strong Buy, eight rate it Buy, six rate it Hold, three rate it Sell and three rate it Strong Sell.
For investors, the immediate takeaway is not that BlackBerry and Nokia have become obvious winners. It is that both have found credible businesses beyond their handset pasts, and both are being treated as AI beneficiaries even as the numbers on the screen say expectations may have outrun the fundamentals. BlackBerry’s next test is whether QNX can turn its installed footprint into faster revenue and profit growth. Until that shows up, the stock will keep trading more like a story than a verdict.
