Baker Mayfield is heading into 2026 with a warning attached to his name. Pro Football Focus has identified the Buccaneers quarterback as a candidate to throw more interceptions next season, even after he trimmed his total to 11 in 2025.

That is why his turnover profile is drawing attention now. Mayfield is entering the final year of his deal with Tampa Bay, and any spike in interceptions would shape both the Buccaneers’ offense and the discussion around his future beyond this season. He threw 3,693 yards and 26 touchdown passes in 2025, but his completion percentage fell to 63.2 and his margin for error shrank.

Mark Chichester pointed to Mayfield as one of the quarterbacks most likely to see interception numbers swing upward, writing that few passers in the data show interception luck more clearly. Chichester also noted that Mayfield once lived through a much harsher version of that split in 2019, when he finished as the second-unluckiest quarterback in football with a net-luck figure of -8.1 and threw 21 interceptions in Cleveland on a profile the model projected closer to 13.

That history matters because Mayfield’s recent production has not followed a straight line. He threw for 4,044 yards, 28 touchdowns and 10 interceptions in 2023, then jumped to 4,500 yards, 41 touchdowns and 16 interceptions in 2024, when the Buccaneers won 10 games. His 2025 season looked cleaner on the surface, but it still carried warning signs: six of his interceptions were dropped, and he had 20 throws that Pro Football Focus classified as turnover-worthy.

The Buccaneers are trying to manage that risk while also rebuilding the offense around him. The team added running back Kenneth Gainwell and rookie receiver Ted Hurst, and Mayfield is working with new offensive coordinator Zac Robinson, whom he already knew from his time with the Rams at the end of the 2022 season. Tampa Bay missed the postseason for the first time since Mayfield arrived, so the pressure on the offense is no longer theoretical.

What happens in 2026 will matter because it is Mayfield’s contract year, and the Buccaneers do not need a repeat of the instability that can come with tipped throws, dropped picks and a quarterback whose numbers are already being watched as closely as his arm. If he protects the ball again, the warning will look overstated. If not, the next round of contract talks could get much harder for both sides.