The Knicks did more than keep pace with the Spurs this season. Over three regular-season meetings, including the NBA Cup final, New York scored 125.0 points per 100 possessions against San Antonio, a mark that tied for the Knicks’ sixth-best offensive output against any opponent.
That is why the search around Spurs vs Knicks last 5 games has narrowed to one thing: how New York keeps creating efficient possessions against a team built to end them. The Spurs allowed only 110.4 points per 100 possessions in the regular season, third best in the league, yet only the Nuggets were more efficient against them than the Knicks were across those three games.
The clearest warning sign came on Dec. 31 in San Antonio, when the Knicks’ best shooting night of the series still ended in a two-point loss. In the two New York wins, the efficiency came less from clean shooting than from extra chances. The Knicks’ effective field-goal percentage in those victories was a little below league average, but they kept extending possessions and turning misses into pressure on the Spurs’ defense.
That is where the matchup turns. San Antonio was the NBA’s No. 1 defensive rebounding team in the regular season, but New York was badly beaten on the defensive glass in two losses to the Knicks, and the same problem can decide games faster than a hot shooting night can rescue them. Mitchell Robinson has been the center of it. He grabbed 18.3% of available offensive rebounds while on the floor in the playoffs, the highest rate among 146 players who averaged at least 10 minutes per game, and the Knicks have been the third best offensive rebounding team in the postseason. Karl-Anthony Towns added another layer with a 9.4% offensive rebound rate, good for 15th among playoff players, while Jordan Clarkson piled up 16 offensive rebounds in 165 minutes. Over the three games against San Antonio, OG Anunoby and Mikal Bridges combined for 11 offensive boards.
The Spurs have not been passive in the middle. In the March meeting, Stephon Castle and Devin Vassell guarded Towns the most, and Victor Wembanyama was assigned to Josh Hart. When Robinson is on the floor, though, San Antonio has gone back to more traditional matchups, with Wembanyama guarding the Knicks’ backup center. The Spurs also do not force many turnovers, finishing 28th in opponent turnover rate at 12.8 per 100 possessions in the regular season, then improving to 10th in the playoffs at 13.8 per 100 possessions. Even that improvement leaves New York with a path to the extra possessions it has wanted all season.
Game 1 of the NBA Finals is Wednesday at 8:30 p.m. ET on ABC, and the series may turn on whether the Spurs can keep the Knicks off the glass long enough to make New York win with one shot instead of two. If they cannot, the numbers from the last three meetings suggest the Knicks will like that race.
