Michael Soroka has turned a modest December gamble into one of the Arizona Diamondbacks’ best returns. Through 11 starts, he has a 3.25 ERA and a 2.85 FIP, and he has given Arizona 61 innings while helping it hold onto a playoff spot in June.
The Diamondbacks signed Soroka to a $7.5 million guarantee before the season, and he has already earned $500,000 in incentives after making 10 starts. At that pace, he can max out at $2 million in incentives if he reaches 25 starts, a mark that would make him a clear bargain on a staff that has also included Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly.
Arizona has needed that kind of value. Soroka has been the club’s best starter this year at a maximum salary of $9.5 million, and the Diamondbacks moved Brandon Pfaadt to the bullpen when Kelly returned from injury. He is also on track for 177 innings, which would be a career high and a major step for a pitcher whose last season above 89 innings came in 2019, his rookie year.
That durability matters because it changes the market around him. Soroka and the Diamondbacks have a mutual $10 million option for 2026, but those deals are rarely exercised by both sides, and he is likely headed for free agency after the season if he avoids injury. A healthy finish could make him one of the more interesting pitching names on the market.
There is still some unevenness under the hood. Soroka’s OPS allowed to right-handed hitters has dropped from.622 to.540, helped by a heavier mix of sinkers and slurves against them and the addition of a cutter to work the opposite side. But lefties have pushed their OPS against him from.727 to.756, hitting.288 with a.358 BABIP, even as their slugging percentage is down four points and their walk rate has fallen 2.6%.
For Arizona, the immediate question is no longer whether Soroka can help. He already has. The real issue is whether he can stay healthy long enough to keep stacking starts, unlock the bigger incentive money and force a decision that could send him into free agency with the best leverage of his career.
