The Nasdaq Composite drifted 0.1% higher on Monday even as oil prices surged and stocks opened lower, a reminder that investors are still trying to price war risk, inflation and the next burst of tech optimism all at once. The move kept the index near the record territory it reached in May, but only just.
Markets were searching for direction because the day began with renewed unease over the Middle East and ended with tech investors still betting on artificial intelligence. A report from Iran's semi-official Tasnim news agency said Iran suspended talks with the US, and crude jumped sharply in response, with West Texas Intermediate rising 8% to $94 a barrel and Brent gaining 7% to $97. That oil spike arrived even as announcements from the Computex Taipei conference gave semiconductor and hardware shares a lift.
One of the clearest examples was Nvidia, whose new laptop chip helped keep the tech trade in focus. The broader picture was mixed: US stocks were uneven, gold futures slipped more than 1% to $4,529 an ounce and traders were still pricing in about a 40% chance the Federal Reserve will raise rates this year. For investors, that mix matters because higher oil can feed inflation just as the market is trying to decide whether the AI story is strong enough to carry valuations higher.
The friction in Monday's session was simple enough to see on the screen. The Nasdaq advanced anyway while energy fears were pushing in the opposite direction, and the opening tone was weak despite the index's resilience. West Texas Intermediate had just logged its biggest monthly decline since April 2025, falling nearly 17% in May, which made the new surge feel abrupt and harder to dismiss. That is why the market looked unsettled even as some traders kept buying into tech names.
People Inc. also added a separate burst of drama to the day, sending MGM stock up about 14% after it submitted an $18 billion offer, including debt, to buy out the rest of the company. Barry Diller said People Inc. already owns a 26.1% stake in MGM and offered $48.30 per share in cash for the remaining shares, a 24% premium to the stock's average price over the past 30 days. Diller said the market undervalues MGM's assets and praised the management team, calling the deal a way to unlock the company's next phase of growth.
What comes next is clear enough: Friday's nonfarm payrolls report will be the next major test for a market that is already balancing Middle East headlines against the tech boom. If oil stays elevated and growth data stay firm, the Nasdaq Composite could face a tougher argument for extending its climb. If the AI trade keeps overpowering the oil shock, Monday may end up looking like one more pause, not a turning point.
