Nebius Group posted a huge jump in first-quarter 2026 revenue, with sales rising 684% year over year to $399 million as the AI infrastructure company leaned on multibillion-dollar customer commitments to keep expanding. The business, which trades on NASDAQ under the ticker NBIS, is now trying to turn that booked demand into a far larger operation.
That is why Manali Pradhan’s warning that Nebius may not turn every investor into a millionaire lands with force today. The company’s growth story is no longer just a market story or a product story; it is a capital story, and the numbers around it are now in plain view. Wall Street analysts expect revenue of about $3.4 billion in fiscal 2026, roughly $11 billion in fiscal 2027 and nearly $36.8 billion by fiscal 2030, a path that would rank among the fastest growth trajectories in the sector if it holds.
Much of that optimism rests on contracts Nebius has already signed. The company said it has a deal with Meta Platforms worth up to $27 billion over five years, including $12 billion of committed AI computing capacity through 2027. Meta could buy additional capacity later if Nebius has not allocated it to other customers. Nebius also has a $17.4 billion agreement with Microsoft that extends through 2030, while Nvidia is investing $2 billion for an ownership stake in the company.
That backing gives Nebius both cash and credibility, but it does not erase the scale of what comes next. The company expects $20 billion to $25 billion in capital spending in 2026 alone, a figure that makes its rapid revenue growth look almost modest by comparison. The company is effectively trying to build an AI infrastructure business at the pace of a hyperscaler, while still depending on a financing structure that can support that buildout without overwhelming existing shareholders.
The gap is simple to state and hard to solve: Nebius has already locked in large customer commitments, but it still has to fund a year of spending that could reach a quarter-trillion dollars? No — it is a quarter of that in scale, but still an extraordinary sum for a company at this stage. Whether Nebius can execute on the Meta and Microsoft contracts, and pay for the capacity those customers have reserved, will decide whether its next phase looks like a breakout or a dilution story. For now, the growth is real. The financing question is the one investors are still waiting to see answered.
