Pauline Hanson’s One Nation could win as many as 59 seats if a federal election were held today, in a polling analysis that points to a dramatic redrawing of Australian politics. The result would push Labor deep into minority government and leave the Coalition wiped out in all but three states and territories.
The numbers come from a large-scale analysis of voter intentions by Redbridge Group and Accent Research, and they capture a shift that has built since the last election. What makes the finding striking is not just the size of the One Nation result, but the fact that it is being framed as the worst-case outcome for the major parties.
For Hanson, that means a party long treated as a protest force is being measured as a potentially dominant player in a parliament shaped by fragmentation rather than old loyalties. For Labor and the Coalition, it suggests the old two-party contest is under strain at the very moment both would want reassurance that their support remains locked in.
That is the friction inside the poll: it projects a surge for One Nation while also describing a scenario that would be disastrous for the major parties. A result that strong for Hanson does not simply weaken one side or the other; it implies a parliament so splintered that neither Labor nor the Coalition can assume its old position at the center of federal politics.
The unanswered question is how durable that picture is. The analysis measures what would happen if an election were held today, but no election date has been confirmed, and the gap between a snapshot and a vote can be wide. For now, the message is blunt: the political order that existed at the last election looks far less secure than it did then.
