Grant Holmes was set to take the ball for the Braves on Friday night in Cincinnati, where Atlanta opened a Reds game against Chris Paddack with a clear edge on the mound. First pitch at Great American Ball Park was scheduled for 6:40 pm EDT, and the matchup put Holmes, who has steadied himself lately, against a Reds starter still searching for his first win.
The timing matters because the Braves arrived after a series against the Red Sox in which their bats erupted twice and went quiet once, and they were now facing the back end of Cincinnati's rotation. Holmes entered with a 3.78 ERA, coming off a start against the Nationals in which he struck out 10 and walked two over five innings, and a previous outing against Boston in which he threw 6.0 scoreless innings. Paddack came in at 6.86 with no wins, a line that looked even worse than his 4.32 xERA and left the Reds asking for more from a pitcher who was getting hitters to chase out of the zone 33.7 percent of the time.
Holmes' season had still been uneven, though, because his problems often showed up the third time through a lineup. His 4.17 xERA and 44.4 percent hard-hit rate suggested a pitcher living a little closer to danger than his recent box scores indicated, and that made Friday more than a simple form check. The question was whether he could keep the Reds from turning over a lineup and finding the same slip that has followed him through stretches of the season.
The matchup numbers gave both sides something to lean on. No Reds hitter had more than seven at-bats against Holmes, but nine hitters had seen him and six were batting.333 or better. Jarren Friedl had two homers in four at-bats against him. On the other side, Mike Yastrzemski had 25 at-bats against Paddack with three home runs, a.400 average and a 1.324 OPS, while Dominic Smith had only a.182 average in 11 at-bats against him. No other Braves player had more than 11 at-bats against Paddack, a small sample that still gave Atlanta a few familiar looks at a pitcher whose results have not matched his underlying numbers.
That left the Braves in a familiar spot: leaning on an offense that can change a game quickly while hoping Holmes keeps the Reds from getting a second or third pass at him. Jorge Mateo, Dominic Smith and Chadwick Tromp were in the lineup to face Cincinnati, but the night still figured to turn on Holmes' ability to survive the innings where his season has tended to wobble. If he does, Atlanta can keep pressing a vulnerable rotation. If he does not, the Reds have enough recent evidence against him to make the game far less comfortable for the visitors.
