is warning fantasy managers not to assume Fernando Tatis Jr. will rebound in time to save a season that has already gone sideways. The column said it would not be a surprise if the San Diego Padres star finishes outside the top 50 fantasy options, a stunning fall for a player who went into drafts as a second-round pick in many standard leagues.
The reason the projection lands now is simple: nearly one-third of the season is gone, and Tatis still has not homered. Through 227 plate appearances by nearly June, he was on pace for a.255 average, 48 RBIs, 57 runs and 38 stolen bases. That kind of speed still matters, but it is not enough to offset the gap between what fantasy managers bought and what he has actually delivered.
That gap is wider because Tatis, 27, has long been treated as one of the best players in baseball, not just a speed source. He hit 25 home runs last season, entered this year with a.513 slugging percentage across six seasons, and the Padres even added 2B eligibility to make him easier to roster. In standard drafts, that profile pushed him into the second round, where managers were paying for a complete hitter who could change a category on his own.
Instead, the power has vanished. He had not homered through those 227 plate appearances and had not shown any sign that a mechanical fix or a sudden surge was on the way. His batting stance had been drastically closed, and neither Tatis nor the Padres had opened it back up. He also was not catching up to four-seam fastballs, his weak-contact rate was more than four times what it was in 2025, and his.845 OPS against right-handed pitching last season had fallen to.597 this season.
The rest of the line looks just as uncharacteristic. He had fewer walks than last season, more strikeouts, many more ground balls and one of the lowest fly ball rates in the sport, a profile that helps explain why the home runs are not coming. Tatis is still stealing bases, which keeps him from becoming a total fantasy bust, but the old version of his value was built on impact power. Right now, that part of the game is missing.
For fantasy managers, the question is no longer whether Tatis can be patient through a slump. It is whether the stance he has adopted is temporary, whether an injury or some other issue is suppressing his power, and whether he can find enough lift in the bat to matter again. Until that changes, ’s warning sounds less like a hot take than a believable endpoint.
