Rupert Lowe put out canvassing returns from Makerfield this week claiming Restore Britain had 24.6% support for Rebecca Shepherd on a sample of 1,010 people. Later, a Survation poll of 369 voters told a much different story: Restore on 7%, Reform on 40% and Labour’s Andy Burnham on 43%.
That gap matters now because Makerfield has become a live test of whether Lowe’s breakaway operation can translate social-media noise into actual votes. Lowe is the leader of Restore Britain and a former Reform UK MP who was ejected from the party after bullying allegations, so every number attached to him lands inside an already bitter fight on the right.
The numbers were amplified far beyond the local contest. Elon Musk reposted Lowe on X and added “Restore Britain.” Later, after Lowe lashed out at Nigel Farage, Musk shared that post too and added: “Only Restore Britain can save Britain.” Lowe’s complaint about “dishonest polling” drew more than 32 million views, turning a constituency argument into a national spectacle.
For Lowe, the canvassing returns were meant to show momentum in a place where his party wants to look credible. For the poll, they became a direct challenge to that claim. The Survation numbers did not just trim the edge off his argument; they undercut it, with Restore trailing far behind the figures Lowe had circulated. How the canvassing returns were collected was not explained, and that leaves the sharpest question untouched: whether the claim reflected real ground support, a selective snapshot, or just a battle over which numbers the right wants to believe.
The row also widened the split between Reform UK and Restore Britain during the Makerfield byelection buildup. Farage said Musk was trying to split the right of British politics “as best he can” and described his backing as support for “a party that’s one man with a social media account.” Reform’s Danny Kruger told the that Robert Kenyon’s comments about Carol Vorderman were “inappropriate” but said they were “private conversations”, while Vorderman demanded an apology. On the other side, Matt Goodwin reposted an interview with Shepherd asking, “Is this what saving Britain looks like? No.” Lowe fired back: “A healthy mind, that is not.”
The campaign now looks less like a straight fight for Makerfield than a contest over credibility, amplified by figures who can turn a local poll into a national argument overnight. Lowe also told followers that “Restore Britain will deport the thousands and thousands of third world rapists, sex pests and scumbags that Reform’s Robert Jenrick imported as immigration minister,” a line that kept the feud alive even as Robert Jenrick leaked messages he said had been sent to him in February by Orla Minihane. With Musk still boosting Lowe’s posts and Tice calling a column describing Lowe as “sick making” “superb,” the unanswered issue is not whether the row is loud. It is whether any of these claims can survive contact with the ballot box.
