The Braves are sending Grant Holmes to the mound Friday night against the Reds, a matchup that comes after Atlanta’s bats exploded twice against Boston and disappeared once. First pitch is set for 6:40 p.m. EDT on May 29 at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, where Holmes will try to keep building on a season that has been uneven but not empty.
Holmes enters with a 3.78 ERA, and his last two starts hint at why the numbers still feel unsettled. He struck out 10 Nationals hitters in five innings last time out, but he also allowed two solo homers on six hits. Before that, he spun 6.0 scoreless innings against the Red Sox, fanning four and walking one while limiting them to five hits. His 4.17 xERA suggests he has been a little better than the run prevention column shows, even with a 44.4 percent hard-hit rate that has left him vulnerable when contact gets loud.
The matchup on the other side gives Atlanta a clear target, but not a simple one. Chris Paddack has yet to record his first win and owns a 6.86 ERA, a line that looks rough until you get to his 4.32 xERA, which says the right-hander has pitched better than the results have shown. He also gets hitters to chase pitches out of the zone 33.7 percent of the time, a trait that could matter against a Braves club that has shown it can go from dangerous to dormant in the same series.
The history between Holmes and Cincinnati gives the Reds a small edge in familiarity, even if the sample is thin. No Reds hitter has more than seven at-bats against him, but six of the nine Cincinnati batters who have seen him have hit.333 or better, and TJ Friedl has two home runs in four at-bats against the Atlanta right-hander. Holmes has also shown he can miss bats when he is on, which is why Friday feels less like a forecast than a test of whether the version that handled Washington can show up again in Cincinnati.
There is one more layer for the Braves to solve once Paddack starts dealing to their lineup. Mike Yastrzemski has 25 at-bats against him with three home runs, a.400 average and a 1.324 OPS, while no other Braves player has more than 11 at-bats against the Cincinnati starter. Smith is 2-for-11 with a.182 average against Paddack. That makes the opener at Great American Ball Park more than just another late-May game: Atlanta gets a chance to see whether Holmes’ recent swing-and-miss stretch holds, and whether Paddack’s ugly ERA keeps matching what he has actually done when the ball leaves his hand.
