The Chicago Cubs go into Thursday, May 28 as underdogs against the Pittsburgh Pirates, but the matchup points to a chance for Chicago to take advantage of a fading Paul Skenes. The reigning Cy Young winner has allowed nine earned runs in 10 innings over his last two starts, both losses, and the bet here is that the Cubs can turn that recent dip into an upset.
Chicago’s offense has enough to make that case. The Cubs average 4.73 runs per game and own a.725 OPS, a blend of production that has been good enough to keep them in games even when they are not at their sharpest. That matters here because Pittsburgh has been built more around keeping scores tight than winning shootouts, and the numbers around Skenes have pushed this matchup in that direction.
The Pirates have played to totals of seven runs or less in five of Skenes’ last six starts, and they have hit the Under in each of his last four outings. That run of low-scoring games says more than a standard preview ever could: when Skenes has been on the mound, Pittsburgh has been able to drag opponents into a slower, narrower game, but the same stretch also shows how little margin he has had lately.
Colin Rea gets the ball for Chicago with a 4-3 record and a 4.83 ERA, so this is not a clean pitching edge for the Cubs. But Rea’s 32.2% chase rate gives him a path against a Pittsburgh lineup that ranks third-worst in whiff percentage this year at 27.5%. If the Pirates keep offering empty swings, Chicago does not need a dominant night from Rea to stay live deep into the game.
That is the tension in this matchup. The Pirates can keep games close even when their offense flounders, and Skenes still has the kind of profile that can silence a hot lineup on a given night. At the same time, the Cubs’ offense has the better underlying production, and the recent version of Skenes has not matched the standard that made him such a hard player to bet against earlier in the year. For readers following the series buildup, the broader setup was laid out in a look at Cubs vs. Pirates at PNC Park, while Pittsburgh’s latest offensive jolt came in Henry Davis’ homer in the Pirates’ 6-2 win over the Cardinals.
The recommendation is straightforward: back Chicago to win if the price reaches +140 or better, and take the Under at 7.5 runs if the odds are standard -110 or better. If Skenes looks more like his peak form again, the market will have priced in the rebound too late. If he does not, the Cubs are the side that can make the mistake and still cash the ticket.
