The 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge begins Thursday at Colonial Country Club with several of the PGA Tour’s biggest names already gone, leaving the event open in a way that would have been hard to imagine a week ago. Wyndham Clark withdrew after winning the CJ Cup Byron Nelson last week, and Scottie Scheffler and Jordan Spieth also pulled out.
That creates a different kind of spotlight for Rickie Fowler and the rest of the field as the tournament opens at 8 a.m. ET Thursday, with the final grouping set to tee off at 2:30 p.m. ET. The early betting board reflects that uncertainty: Ludvig Aberg is the favorite at +800, Russell Henley sits at +1800, Justin Thomas is listed at +2200, and defending champion Ben Griffin is also at +2200.
For Fowler, the timing matters because the Charles Schwab Challenge is the second Texas tournament in as many weeks, and the field has been reshaped almost as soon as it was set. Clark’s withdrawal comes after his win last week, while Scheffler and Spieth are both out before a ball has been struck at Colonial, stripping the event of three of its most recognizable draws.
Griffin returns as the defending champion, but the numbers around him point to a difficult title defense. SportsLine’s model, which was built by DFS pro Mike McClure and has simulated PGA Tour tournaments 10,000 times, says Griffin stumbles and falls to even crack the top 10. The same model sees Akshay Bhatia making a run at the title despite +3300 odds, and it is targeting two other longshots priced at +4000 or longer to surge toward the top of the leaderboard.
The model’s record is part of why those projections draw attention. The source says it has nailed 17 majors, including the 2026 Masters, last year’s PGA Championship and the Open Championship, giving the forecast extra weight heading into a week when the favorites have already lost some of their shine. That leaves Colonial with a field still deep enough to matter, but not quite the one fans expected when the week began.
What happens next is simple enough: the first tee shots on Thursday will tell whether this is a favorite’s tournament after all, or the kind of week when a lower-priced contender can take advantage of the opening left by the withdrawals. Fowler is among the names left to help decide which version of the Charles Schwab Challenge emerges.
