The United States Central Command said on Monday it carried out new strikes on southern Iran, hitting missile sites and boats it said were trying to place naval mines. A day later, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard said it had downed a US drone and fired at a jet and another drone that entered Iranian airspace, underscoring how quickly the truce has begun to fray again.
CENTCOM said the attacks were carried out in self-defence to protect US troops from threats posed by Iranian forces. Tehran, for its part, said it retained the “legitimate and definite” right to respond to any violation of the ceasefire. The exchange came as both sides continued to test the limits of an agreement announced on April 8, with no sign that either side is willing to step back first.
The current fighting traces back to February 28, when the United States and Israel launched strikes on Iran. Iran answered with missiles and drones aimed at Israel and US military and infrastructure assets across the Gulf region and the wider Middle East. After weeks of escalation, the two sides agreed on April 8 to a two-week pause following mediation by Pakistan, and delegations from both countries met in Islamabad on April 11 and April 12. Those talks failed to produce a broader agreement.
The toll is already severe. Iran’s Ministry of Health says at least 3,468 people have been killed in US-Israeli attacks since February 28, including 7 infants, 376 children, 496 women and people as old as 88 years. Iran’s attacks have killed at least 26 Israelis and wounded 7,791, while the US military has confirmed 13 combat-related deaths across the region. On April 10, Kuwait said seven drones entered its airspace and accused Iran and allied armed groups of the attack. The US Department of State has also accused Iran-linked armed groups in Iraq of launching attacks from Iraqi territory.
The broader backdrop is a ceasefire that has never fully held. Iranian and US forces have continued to exchange strikes despite the April 8 agreement, and mediation efforts are now under way in Doha. The Strait of Hormuz remains central to the stakes, as a key shipping route for one-fifth of the world’s oil and natural gas supplies in peacetime, while US forces have enforced a corresponding blockade on Iranian ports since the truce was announced. Lebanon has also been battered, with more than 3,200 people killed there, according to the Lebanese Ministry of Public Health.
For now, the story is not whether the ceasefire exists on paper. It is whether either side can keep from turning every alleged incursion, drone sighting or missile site into the next round of a war that has already spread across borders, seas and airspace.
