A Texas primary runoff on Tuesday will decide whether four-term incumbent Sen. John Cornyn keeps his place in the Republican Senate race or whether state Attorney General Ken Paxton, a hard-right challenger backed by Donald Trump, takes his shot at the seat.
The winner will face Democrat James Talarico in November’s general election, setting up a race that could test whether Texas is still out of reach for Democrats. Talarico, a state legislator with a groundswell of popularity, is trying to become the first Democrat in more than 30 years to win statewide office in Texas.
Trump gave Paxton a crucial boost last week, calling him “a true Maga warrior,” a signal that the former president is treating the runoff as more than a routine party contest. Paxton needed that help after Cornyn narrowly beat him in the March 3 primary, forcing both men into Tuesday’s runoff.
For voters like Jim Tubbesing, the choice is about ideology as much as it is about the candidates themselves. “Paxton is more conservative,” he said, adding, “He has been good for Texas. I vote for the policy, not the fact that he’s alleged to have done something.” Tubbesing was blunter about Cornyn, calling him “Rino: Republican in name only.”
Cornyn’s allies see the race very differently. Jon Taylor described him as “the last of the old-guard Republicans in this state, someone who could – in some respects – trace his lineage back to both George Herbert Walker Bush and George W Bush.” That is the exact style of politics Paxton has spent years trying to push aside.
Paxton, who has been impeached and indicted, is running as the anti-establishment option in a state where the Republican base has become more skeptical of moderation. Cornyn, by contrast, has helped the party raise millions of dollars and has built a reputation for working with Democrats on bipartisan bills, including a 2022 gun safety measure he helped negotiate.
That divide is why observers say the runoff is about vibe and style more than policy. On most legislation, Cornyn and Paxton would vote the same way. The difference is who their voters believe can better reflect the party’s mood, and how much room there is left in Texas Republican politics for an incumbent who still talks and acts like a dealmaker.
Cal Jillson called Cornyn a “calm, serious, problem-oriented politician,” a description that fits the senator’s pitch and the challenge he faces. If Paxton wins Tuesday, the November race will become one of the most closely watched contests in the state, with Talarico’s party seeing an opening in a place it has not won statewide in more than 30 years.
