BP shares have climbed 53% in a year and were up 16% in the past three months, but the stock is still trading at roughly the same level it did at the start of the millennium. The latest lift came as oil-market volatility and geopolitical bets pushed investors back toward the energy major.
On 28 April, BP reported quarterly revenue up £5.3bn to £52.3bn, helped by its trading division as customers raced to secure energy supplies. That followed a run of gains that has left the shares on a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 8.2 and a forecast yield of 4.6%, with buybacks still on hold.
The company’s recent recovery sits on top of a bruising 25 years. BP’s shares plunged with the rest of the market after the dotcom crash in 2001, were hit again during the financial crisis in 2007, took a further blow after Deepwater Horizon in 2010 and fell once more in the Covid lockdowns in 2020. Along the way, the group also absorbed a massive £25bn hit on its stake in Rosneft after the Ukraine war drove up the oil price.
Tax policy has also mattered. Rachel Reeves scrapped a rule that let oil and gas companies offset UK profits against overseas losses, a change said to help fund a £1.8bn cost-of-living support package. The current windfall charge already accounts for around a third of the total taxes BP pays to the UK government, adding another pressure point to a business already shaped by climate concerns and boardroom instability.
There is still a clear swing factor ahead. The report said BP shares could move lower if a peace deal involving Iran holds, and could bounce if it stalls. On 25 May 2026, reports said the US had struck a peace deal that would see Iran give up uranium and open the Strait of Hormuz, a route central to global energy shipping. For BP, that leaves investors watching not just earnings and taxes, but whether the geopolitics that have propelled the stock higher keep working in its favor.
