VSiN soccer contributor Luke DiVasta’s favorite MLS pick for Saturday, May 23, points to Nashville SC at home against New York City FC, with Nashville listed at -135 on the three-way moneyline. The draw was priced at +275 and New York City FC at +330, reflecting a matchup between the Eastern Conference leader and a team trying to steady its form.
Nashville entered at 9-3-1 and first in the Eastern Conference, and it had not lost in MLS play since April 4. Through 13 matches, Nashville had scored 29 goals and ranked fifth in the league by allowing 10.8 shots per game. Hany Mukhtar led the club with six goals, Warren Madrigal had five, and Sam Surridge, who had nine goals on the season, remained out.
New York City FC came in at 5-4-5 and fifth in the Eastern Conference after going 2-1-2 in its last five MLS matches. Nicolas Fernandez had been the most dangerous name in the group, with nine goals and three assists in 14 appearances, but the attack had managed just two goals in its last four league matches.
That gap in form is the center of the betting case. Nashville has kept winning despite a packed spring that included a strong run before it lost both aggregate legs to Tigres UANL in the CONCACAF Champions Cup semifinals, while New York City FC has been uneven enough to make even a solid recent stretch feel fragile. The numbers point in opposite directions: Nashville has the record, the scoring depth and the home edge; New York City FC has the talent to make the price look tempting, but not the consistency to make it easy.
The timing adds another layer. This weekend’s slate is the last MLS action until the 2026 FIFA World Cup nears its conclusion, which gives Saturday’s games an unusually final feel for a league still in the middle of its season rhythm. For Nashville, it is a chance to keep the top spot. For New York City FC, it is a chance to show that the recent uptick is more than a brief correction.
DiVasta’s lean is easy to understand from the board alone, and the bigger question is whether Nashville can turn that edge into another result before the league goes quiet for the World Cup window. If it does, the gap between these two teams will look even wider than the standings already suggest.
