Moving people out of Skegness is among the options being examined to protect Lincolnshire’s coast from flooding, as county officials warn that existing defences could become unreliable after 2040. The prospect of a managed retreat from parts of the shoreline is now on the table for communities that have long depended on sea walls and embankments.
Chris Miller said 85% of the defences would be unreliable after 2040, and he warned that it would be wrong to pretend the problem can be ignored. “We have to evaluate all potential outcomes so that we can provide a credible business case for investment from the government,” he said, adding: “I, in no way, want to be an officer who stands here and says 'yes, we're going to have to migrate Skegness'.”
The scale of what is at risk helps explain why the issue has moved to the front of the agenda today. More than 60,000 people could become flood victims unless Lincolnshire’s coastal defences are improved or other action is taken. Existing defences protect about 20,000 homes, 60,000 residents, 35,000 hectares of agricultural land and 29,000 caravans, while flooding from a breach could spread up to about nine miles inland and reach depths of up to 8ft. Fast-flowing water would make evacuation and emergency response very challenging.
A 2025 report by Lincolnshire County Council said that if government funding could not maintain current flood defences, there would be a requirement to consider what a safe and just withdrawal of maintaining the current line of defence would entail. The report also said a managed retreat from the coastline would need to be considered. The county council, the Environment Agency and East Lindsey District Council have since formed a partnership through the Lincolnshire Coast 2100+ programme to look at ways of reducing risk, including refortifying the coastline or completely remanaging it with wetland areas.
The choice is not only about engineering. It is also about whether the county can afford to keep defending every stretch of coast, or whether some places will have to be left to change. The economic impact of flooding in towns such as Skegness, Mablethorpe and Sutton on Sea could be in the region of £5.5bn, before indirect costs such as business disruption and lost tourism are counted. Miller said: “No-one wants to be in that position, but we have to look at what that would look like.” He added: “It's possibly scarier to close our eyes to it, to just assume everything's going to be fine. We know it won't.”
