Small business confidence fell sharply in May 2026, dropping 11.7 points to 46.3 and slipping below the 50-point threshold that separates more owners expecting weakness from those expecting strength. The Manitoba reading came as every province and every sector posted a decline, underscoring how broadly the pressure is spreading through the small-business economy.

The May Business Barometer, released May 21, was based on 563 responses collected from May 5-12, 2026, and is statistically accurate to plus or minus 4.1 per cent, 19 times in 20. For owners trying to plan through the spring, the survey points to the same forces hitting them from several sides at once: nearly three quarters cited fuel costs, 53% said weak consumer demand was a cost constraint, and hiring intentions stayed weak and below seasonal levels.

Andreea Bourgeois said many small firms are stuck in a grind, with demand weak and costs, especially fuel, still high. She said those conditions do not show signs of improving and are not conducive to strong orders or investment. That warning matters because it comes alongside a second month of price increase plans above 3%, with businesses saying they expect to raise prices by an average of 3.1% in the next few months.

The index itself is built on a scale from 0 to 100, and a score below 50 means owners expecting weaker performance outnumber those expecting stronger performance over the next three or 12 months. CFIB said the long-term optimism index also fell below that mark in May, a sign that the pessimism is not limited to the immediate quarter.

Wage plans, by contrast, were unchanged at 2.4%, suggesting firms are not responding to the tougher outlook by accelerating pay. But the hiring number tells a different story. Only 14% of small firms said they were looking to hire full-time in the next few months, a low level that fits with the wider pullback in confidence.

Simon Gaudreault said governments cannot control global events, but they can act at home by lowering taxes, cutting red tape and removing internal trade barriers. He said those steps would help small businesses weather the current challenges, and argued that the right policies now could create conditions that last beyond the crisis and pay off in the long term.

For Manitoba and the rest of the country, the question is no longer whether small businesses feel pressure. The survey shows they do. The issue now is whether weak demand, higher fuel costs and rising price plans are the start of a longer squeeze on growth, hiring and investment.