Russia said on May 19 that its strategic nuclear forces had begun a three-day exercise, a sudden show of force that came as Moscow warned that the risk of direct confrontation with NATO was growing. The drill is scheduled to run through May 21 and, according to the Russian Ministry of Defense, is meant to prepare forces to use nuclear weapons in response to an aggression threat.

The ministry said the exercise will involve more than 64,000 personnel and over 7,800 pieces of military equipment, including more than 200 missile launchers, over 140 aircraft, 73 surface ships and 13 submarines. Among those submarines are eight strategic missile submarines. Russian Service assessed on May 19 that the drill will likely involve most of Russia’s estimated roughly 320 nuclear-capable intercontinental ballistic missile launchers, underscoring the scale of an operation that is far larger than a routine readiness check.

Sergei Ryabkov, Russia’s deputy foreign minister, said on May 19 that Russia and NATO are increasingly likely to engage in a direct clash with catastrophic consequences. He accused NATO countries of provoking Russia in the nuclear sphere, said the alliance was escalating its rhetoric about the Russian threat, and argued that Russian military planners will not ignore NATO’s nuclear weapons development. He also said Western countries have not set conditions for substantive dialogue on arms control.

The timing makes the drill stand out even by Russian standards. Moscow did not previously announce the May 19 to May 21 exercise, and it is being held much earlier in the year than the air, land and sea nuclear drills Russia has typically staged in October since 2022. Russian forces last carried out surprise nuclear exercises in summer 2024, but those focused on non-strategic nuclear weapons rather than the strategic forces now being mobilized.

The new exercise also comes a day after Belarus said Russian and Belarusian forces had begun a joint drill on the use of nuclear weapons. That adds another layer to an already sharp message from the Kremlin, which has paired military signaling with warnings about NATO while keeping pressure on Ukraine and its backers. The scale, the secrecy and the early timing all point to the same conclusion: Russia is trying to project readiness and deterrence while the confrontation with the West deepens.