James Talarico is running ahead of both possible Republican nominees for the Texas U.S. Senate seat, according to a new poll released as the GOP primary runoff heads toward May 26. The survey found that if John Cornyn is the Republican nominee, 45% of voters would support the incumbent senator and 44% would back Talarico. If Ken Paxton wins the nomination, the race is even, with both men drawing 45%.
The poll was conducted by Texas Southern University's Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center among 1,223 voters from April 22 through May 6, giving an early read on the general election matchup that could follow the Republican runoff. Cornyn and Paxton are locked in a tight primary fight, and the numbers suggest either one would face a difficult road in November against the Austin state representative.
For Cornyn, the result points to a contest that would be close from the start despite the advantage of incumbency. For Paxton, it shows a nominee who would begin the general election on level ground but not with a cushion. In both matchups, Talarico is within a point or tied, which is the kind of margin that can be wiped out quickly once the full force of a statewide race takes hold.
The wrinkle is that the poll does not settle the larger question Texas Republicans are still deciding. The May 26 runoff will determine which man gets the party label, and the final choice could shape how hard each side pushes into November. But the survey suggests the November contest would not open with a clear favorite on the Republican side, and it puts pressure on both Cornyn and Paxton to leave the primary without damaging themselves in a state that still leans red.
