Oklahoma heads into Monday night with a severe-weather setup already in place, and the most dangerous window runs from the late afternoon into Tuesday afternoon. Lows tonight will stay in the upper 60s to low 70s, with partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies and breezy south winds.

The risk rises Monday late in the day, and if thunderstorms manage to form in daylight hours, the main threats would be baseball-sized hail and winds as strong as 75 mph. The tornado risk is also elevated, especially during the evening hours when the low-level jet kicks in.

That threat matters because Tuesday morning brings the cold front that is expected to supply enough lift for widespread thunderstorm activity. By Tuesday afternoon, the severe-weather period could still be going, with storm coverage increasing as the front moves through.

The biggest uncertainty is how strong the cap will be in preventing daytime thunderstorm activity on Monday. If that cap holds, the storm risk may stay more limited until later. If it breaks, the day could turn active fast, with the kind of hail, wind and tornado threat that can quickly change travel plans across Oklahoma.

For readers following the broader action around the state, the weather will overlap with the attention on Oklahoma City, where the Spurs-Thunder matchup has drawn interest ahead of Monday night. But the forecast leaves little room for distraction: the first round of severe weather may arrive before the game is over, and the more widespread round is tied to the front arriving Tuesday morning.

For now, the outlook is straightforward. Monday night is warm, breezy and cloudier, then the threat shifts higher late Monday and remains active into Tuesday afternoon as the front moves through and the atmosphere gets the lift it needs for storms.