Jones Knows has backed Nottingham Forest to avoid defeat at 5/4 with Sky Bet ahead of another busy Premier League weekend, using Manchester United’s numbers under Carrick as part of the case. The columnist’s view comes as every remaining Premier League game this season will be live on Sky Sports, adding to the scale of a weekend that will also bring more betting angles for readers chasing value.
The Forest call rests on a United side whose results have looked stronger than the underlying data. Manchester United have won 10 of their 15 Premier League games in charge this season under Carrick and collected 33 points from a possible 45, with only Manchester City taking more in that period and no side winning more matches. But the process has not matched the points total. United are operating at just +0.1 xG per 90 minutes under Carrick, while across their last eight Premier League matches their xG supremacy figure stands at -0.3 per 90, a weaker mark than Wolves and Burnley over the same run. Jones Knows summed up the split neatly: results excellent, process far less convincing.
That is why the recommendation is built around Forest on the double chance rather than a bolder outright play. In betting terms, the argument is that a team can keep putting points on the board even when the underlying metrics start to wobble, and United’s recent figures have given enough reason to question whether the market is overrating them. The 5/4 price reflects that caution and the belief that Forest can at least avoid defeat if the game follows the pattern suggested by the numbers.
The rest of the preview leans on the same approach, combining form and data rather than reputation alone. Ismaila Sarr has scored 20 goals across all competitions this season and has netted nine in his last nine starts on the road, with 17 shots on target across that away run, a record that makes him a live attacking angle. Everton, meanwhile, are without a win in their last five Premier League games, while Sunderland have failed to win any of their last four and have drawn their last two, leaving both clubs in need of a sharper response. Elsewhere, Wembley has been a place for caution rather than goal rushes, with the last 54 domestic and European matches there averaging 1.93 goals per game and 92 per cent landing under 3.5 goals, a trend that will matter to 3.5 goal backers looking for cover.
For punters, the thread through all of it is simple: form can flatter, and numbers can expose what the table does not. Forest’s double chance is the play Jones Knows likes most, but the deeper message is that United’s recent points haul has not fully convinced beneath the surface, and that makes this one of the more interesting reads on the weekend card.
