Hearts’ possible 2025/26 Scottish title has been ranked the second biggest underdog success of the modern soccer era in a new William Hill study, placing the Edinburgh club behind only Montpellier’s 2011/12 Ligue 1 triumph. The projection gave Hearts an index score of 82 out of 100 and 22/1 pre-season odds, a combination that put them ahead of Leicester City’s famous 2015/16 Premier League run.
The study said Leicester’s 2015/16 title rated third on 81 out of 100, while Montpellier finished first with 86 out of 100. Hearts, if they were to win, would end a 66-year wait for a league crown. William Hill said the ranking compared title winners across six major European competitions this century, using five measurable criteria: pre-season outright odds, years since last league title, previous season finish, summer transfer spend and average stadium capacity.
Lee Phelps said Leicester’s 2016 title win had long been viewed as the benchmark for an underdog story, but the analysis suggested Hearts could go one step further. That is because the Scottish club were judged against a tiny summer spend and a mid-table finish in the previous season, factors that pushed their hypothetical campaign high on the list despite the smaller stage of the William Hill Premiership.
The top five was completed by Wolfsburg’s 2008/09 title and Lille’s 2010/11 success, while Bayer Leverkusen’s 2023/24 triumph and Monaco’s 2016/17 crown were ranked lower because stronger resources and higher expectations made them less of a shock. Leicester’s 5,000/1 odds were still described in the study as unmatched, but the comparison left room for a different kind of surprise: one built on scarcity rather than impossibility.
There is a catch, of course. The ranking is only a study, not a result, and Hearts have not lifted the trophy. But the numbers show why a Scottish title chase would draw attention far beyond Edinburgh: it would not just break a 66-year drought, it would challenge the modern soccer script that usually reserves the biggest shocks for the richest leagues.
For now, Hearts remain the hypothetical story in William Hill’s index, not the finished one. If they turn that 82-point rating into a real title, the debate over the greatest underdog championship would not just reopen — it would probably change hands.
