Okta is trading below a cash flow model estimate that puts its intrinsic value at about $123.40 a share, versus a current share price of about $78.20. That gap leaves the identity software company appearing about 36.6% undervalued on Simply Wall St’s discounted cash flow view, even as the same analysis gives Okta only 2 out of 6 on its valuation checks.

The valuation work matters today because it sets a fresh benchmark on a stock that has already been pushed through multiple lenses. Simply Wall St said it used a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity model, starting with Okta’s latest twelve months of free cash flow at about $859.7 million. From there, the analysis projects free cash flow of about $831.6 million in 2026 and $1.30245 billion in 2031, a path that supports the higher fair value estimate.

The market price is only part of the picture. Simply Wall St said Okta currently trades at about 58.9 times earnings, well above the broader IT industry average of 22.6 times and also above the selected peer average of 51.6 times. Against that backdrop, the model’s Fair Ratio of 32.0 times suggests the shares are still expensive on earnings, even if the cash flow estimate points the other way.

That split is the tension in the analysis. A stock can look cheap on one yardstick and rich on another, and Okta is landing in that middle ground. Simply Wall St’s own narrative examples on its Community page framed a wide range of outcomes, with one fair value around US$133.38 and another around US$75.03, underscoring how much the final view depends on assumptions about future growth and cash generation.

For investors, the next step is not a corporate event but a judgment call: whether to trust the cash flow trajectory more than the earnings multiple. On this reading, Okta does not screen as a simple bargain or an obvious overvaluation. It looks like a stock where the price is already telling one story while the model is telling another.