Reading: Kalshi and the CFP top 12 projection shift after Week 10

Kalshi and the CFP top 12 projection shift after Week 10

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's Week 10 College Football Playoff projection shook up the top of the field, with Georgia moving to No. 1 after Miami's loss at Notre Dame and Georgia's convincing win over Ole Miss. The projection also kept Utah undefeated in the mix and sharpened the debate over Alabama's place near the top.

That is why the search around Kalshi is landing here now: the committee's second ranking of the season was due Tuesday night, and one weekend was enough to redraw the board. Georgia's result mattered twice, first because it beat Alabama on Oct. 10 and then because it handled Ole Miss, while Alabama strengthened its case with a sound win over LSU at Tiger Stadium.

Hunter Yurachek put Utah's case into plain terms when he said the Utes and UCLA had “almost identical” résumés, then added that Utah was “above UCLA and just a better team when we watch them play.” He said Utah is “very balanced offensively,” with Devon Dampier running the offense as a runner and passer, and he pointed to the defense as part of what separates the Utes from the pack. Utah stayed unbeaten by beating BYU in Week 10, and it paired that record with statement wins over Houston and BYU.

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The catch is that undefeated does not settle the whole argument. Utah entered Week 10 with the No. 81 strength of schedule, and that is where the committee's view can split: some members may lean toward Alabama's résumé and eye test over a perfect record. Ohio State, ranked No. 12 on Tuesday, would not be a CFP team after its third loss, which only tightens the margin for error in a race where every slot matters and five SEC teams were already inside the committee's top 10 in the first ranking.

Georgia's own profile is not spotless, either. It has a home loss to unranked Auburn on Oct. 17, but the win at Alabama and the result at Ole Miss give the Bulldogs a stronger closing argument than they had a week ago. Its toughest remaining game was listed as Nov. 21 at South Carolina, and South Carolina carried four straight wins into a Week 11 trip to Arkansas. The Tuesday night reveal should show whether the committee rewards the unbeaten Utes, the resume-heavy Crimson Tide, or the Bulldogs' surge to the top.

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