Fred VanVleet is back on the floor for the Rockets after blowing out his knee just before training camp, and that alone changes the shape of their early season. He took part fully throughout camp and played in two of the Rockets' three preseason games, a strong sign that the recovery has moved well past the first stage.
That matters now because the Rockets did not have another true point guard on the roster, and the hard cap made it nearly impossible to solve that problem any other way. When VanVleet is running the offense, the Rockets have been more stable with the ball: they finished inside the top 11 in turnover rate in two seasons with him as their point guard, and their turnover rate fell to 12.2% in one of those seasons and 12.5% in the other.
The search for him is tied to more than ball security. The Rockets missed his steadiness last season, especially in fourth quarters, when 16% of their possessions ended in turnovers. They also lost some of the pull he creates on the perimeter. VanVleet shot 34.5% from behind the three-point line two seasons ago and is a career 37% shooter from long distance, while the Rockets averaged 31.5 three-point attempts per game last season after posting 35.8 and 36.1 in the two seasons before that.
There is still a real reason to keep the expectations measured. VanVleet is back, but back does not automatically mean unchanged, and the question is not whether he can help, but how close he can get to the level he showed before the injury. He averaged more than 10 drives per game in his two seasons with the Rockets and passed the ball on more than 60% of those drives, exactly the kind of playmaking profile the team lacked when six Rockets players had to shoulder more than three drives per game last season.
Only Amen Thompson passed the ball on more than 45% of those possessions last season at 50.5%, which helps explain why VanVleet’s return feels so important. The Rockets have their point guard back in camp, and the next step is simple to state even if it is not easy to answer: whether his body, his pace and his decision-making can hold up once the games count for real.
