Nevada football goes into Saturday’s game at North Dakota State with a narrow path and very little margin for error. The Wolf Pack are a 14.5-point underdog, and the matchup is framed by one basic problem: Nevada has to run the ball well enough to keep North Dakota State from turning the game into a long, defensive squeeze.
That is why the number Chris Murray pointed to matters so much. Nevada needs to run for 175 yards to have a chance, and that is not a soft target. North Dakota State is first in the nation in passing yards allowed per game, third in team passing efficiency defense and giving up only 3.2 yards per carry. Nevada has been productive on the ground at 212.2 rushing yards per game and 5.4 yards per carry, but this is a different kind of test.
The challenge is not just volume. It is efficiency against a defense that does not give up easy yards. North Dakota State allows 114.8 rushing yards per game, which is why Nevada cannot waste early downs or fall behind the sticks. UNLV managed 178 rushing yards against North Dakota State last week, so the Bison can be moved. Nevada just has to prove it can do that too, while doing enough through the air to avoid becoming one-dimensional.
That is where Nathan Hayes comes in. The first-year starter in his fifth season in the program has completed 63 percent of his passes, leads the Mountain West with 8.1 yards per attempt and has run for 155 yards and three touchdowns. But his recent form has been uneven. He completed 70 percent of his passes in North Dakota State’s first three games, then dropped to 56.3 percent over the last three, with two passing touchdowns and three interceptions. Last week at UNLV, he threw three interceptions.
Nevada’s own defense gives the Pack a chance to stay in the game if the offense can create short fields. The unit has allowed 22 points per game, tied for 57th nationally with Oregon, but it has forced only three takeaways and just one in its last five games. That lone takeaway came on an interception of Air Force in the waning seconds of regulation. Against a team expected to control possessions, that shortage of extra chances matters.
The setup explains the prediction attached to the game: North Dakota State 24, Nevada 10. Both teams have played bottom-10 strength of schedules, but they have not produced the same results. Nevada has looked more vulnerable when it has had to throw, and North Dakota State has the defense to keep pressing that weakness. If the Wolf Pack cannot reach the 175-yard rushing mark and manufacture at least a few short fields, Saturday looks built for the Bison to dictate the game from start to finish.
