Liverpool's early-season attack has not matched its reputation, and that is why Brentford vs Liverpool is being priced as a game that could stay tight. The numbers behind the visit to Brentford are plain enough: Liverpool have scored only six non-penalty Premier League goals and created just nine Opta-defined big chances.
That kind of output is part of why Lewis Jones liked the under 3.5 goals angle for a busy weekend of Premier League action. He also recommended Brentford on the double chance alongside under 3.5 goals at 11/10 with Sky Bet, a bet built around the idea that Brentford can make the game awkward for a side still looking for its usual fluency.
The context is not hard to see. Liverpool's nine big chances are the joint-lowest total in the division, alongside Aston Villa and Coventry, while Brighton have already reached 27. That gap matters because big chances are the clearest sign of whether a side is consistently getting into the most dangerous scoring positions, and Liverpool have not done it often enough yet.
There is also a tactical reason the preview leaned toward Brentford. Jones said set pieces could be where this game is won and lost, and Brentford have a track record of turning matches into physical, second-ball contests by bypassing the press. That sort of game has caused problems before for Andoni Iraola's teams, with seven meetings against Brentford producing no wins and five defeats.
The cleanest read from the preview is that Liverpool are still being treated like a major team, but their numbers do not support that status right now. Until they start turning possession into more than six non-penalty goals and nine big chances, a team like Brentford will keep looking live in this kind of matchup.
