The WNBA came back on Thursday, Sept. 17, and the Atlanta Dream immediately landed at the center of the board as a 91% combo play against the Connecticut Sun. It was the clearest lean on a five-game card that also featured moneyline predictions across the slate, but Atlanta’s number stood out as the strongest call.
That level of backing was not random. Atlanta had a +11.6 net rating over its last 10 games and an elite 102.4 defensive rating, while Connecticut sat last in the league with a -15.6 net rating and a 94.7 offensive rating. The Sun’s bench was part of the drag, posting a -7.7 net rating and a 39.8% eFG%, which helps explain why the matchup was framed so heavily toward the Dream.
The timing matters because this was not a broad season trend buried in midyear numbers. It was a fresh read on the first day back from the FIBA break, when bettors were sorting through a full WNBA card and looking for the sharpest edges. In that same slate, the Washington Mystics were described as a solid standalone play at 53% against the Chicago Sky, with Sonia Citron’s absence noted in that matchup, while the Dallas Wings were listed as another strong combo play at 75% over the Los Angeles Sparks.
Even so, the Atlanta pick was presented as a combo market rather than a guarantee, and that matters. Connecticut had Kennedy Burke ruled out, while Brittney Griner, Diamond Miller and Leila Lacan were all questionable, so the price reflected both Atlanta’s form and the Sun’s uncertainty. The Sun’s profile was weak enough to justify the lean, but not so clean that the number crossed into certainty, especially with the combo format built to chase multiple edges rather than promise a single lock.
For readers scanning the Sept. 17 board, the message was simple: Atlanta was the side with the stronger recent numbers, the better defensive profile and the more stable setup, while Connecticut was still searching for answers. If the game played to form, the Dream were the team the market trusted most; if not, the unresolved question was whether Connecticut’s missing or limited pieces could turn a lopsided read into a tighter contest than the 91% tag suggested.
