New England heads into New England vs New York City on the back of two losses that looked better on the stat sheet than on the scoreboard. The Revs were set to face NYCFC at 8pm ET on AppleTV, a quick rematch after the clubs tied a couple of weeks ago at Gillette.
The concern is not whether New England can get the ball forward. It is whether the chances will turn into points. Against LA, the Revs finished with 8-for-25 shooting, a 55/45 possession edge and 2.7 xG, but still allowed 3-for-7 shooting and 1.2 xG in a game they lost after falling 0-2 in the first half. Against Toronto, they again went down 0-2 early, then controlled 65% of possession, took 6-for-24 shots and posted 2.7 xG, while Toronto managed 1-for-3 shooting and 0.1 xG generated, not counting the own goal. Strong underlying numbers have not been enough to stop the losses from piling up.
That is why Dor Turgeman matters so much in this matchup. He has generated about 9 xG this season but has scored only 6 goals, leaving him at -3 Expected Goals minus Goals and with the worst -4 Pre shot to Post shot xG number in the league. For a New England attack described under Marko Mitrovic as wide open and fluid, with danger lurking across the field, that gap between chance quality and finishing is now the clearest reason the team is leaving points behind.
The broader picture is still better than it was a year ago. New England has had three starters injured for seemingly half the year, and the attack has looked more dangerous under Mitrovic than it did in Caleb Porter's last win, a 2-1 result in Columbus that came with 10 shots, five on target and 2.4 xG. Even so, the Revs have gone from promising movement to a familiar problem: they can create, but they do not finish cleanly enough to make the control count. Pablo Moreira’s first win as interim came in late September against Atlanta, when Turgeman and Leo Campana scored minutes apart, but Campana is still out and the fanbase has been calling for another striker.
That leaves the next 90 minutes in New York carrying more weight than a routine road trip. If New England can turn another strong attacking night into a result, it will reinforce the idea that the process is finally catching up to the production. If it cannot, the club will keep living with the same question that has followed Turgeman all season: how long can a team keep trusting the chances before it changes the finishing?
