Carlos Alcaraz heads into Tuesday’s U.S. Open quarterfinal with the betting edge and the history. The 2025 champion was heavily favored to move on to the semifinals, and Ben Shelton has yet to solve him in three career meetings.
That is the search now because this match is not a neutral next round. It is a direct test of whether Alcaraz can keep moving toward a third U.S. Open title at the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center while Shelton tries to turn a one-sided series into something closer. Alcaraz had won three of his four matches in straight sets at the 2026 U.S. Open, even after missing a lot of time with a wrist injury in 2026.
The numbers explain why the expectation tilts so hard toward Alcaraz. He had beaten Shelton three times already, including a four-set win in Round 4 of the 2025 French Open. Shelton had not taken a set from him in their matches at the Laver Cup in 2024 or the ATP Masters 1000 Canada in 2023, and that history sits behind the market view going into Tuesday.
Still, Shelton has earned the right to be in the conversation. He reached Round 4 by beating Stefanos Tsitsipas 6-2, 6-3, 6-4, dropped just three sets across four matches at the 2026 U.S. Open, and arrived after a strong run rather than a soft draw. He had not faced a ranked opponent before meeting Alcaraz, but he also was not carrying the scars of a long, draining route through the bracket.
That is what gives this matchup its bite. Shelton was bounced in the third round last year, but he made the semifinals in 2023, so he knows how far a good run can carry him. Alcaraz, meanwhile, is trying to protect a championship and keep his own path clean after the injury interruptions of 2026. The favorite label does not decide that match, but it does set the stakes: if Alcaraz holds serve with the expectations built around him, the semifinals wait; if Shelton finally takes a set and turns the match, the draw opens in a way few saw coming.
