Anna Kalinskaya and Emma Navarro will close Sunday’s action at the US Open when they meet in the round of 16 on Arthur Ashe Stadium, with the match scheduled to start at about 8:40 p.m. ET on. Kalinskaya enters with the edge in the rivalry, a 2-0 head-to-head lead, but Navarro arrives fresh off a third-round win over Karolina Muchova that kept her run in New York alive.
The matchup has drawn attention because both players have had uneven seasons and still found a way into a late-round Grand Slam spotlight. Kalinskaya, a two-time major quarterfinalist, is now in the furthest US Open run of her career after beating Elina Svitolina 6-3, 2-6, 6-3. Navarro, a former US Open semifinalist, is into the fourth round of a major for the first time in 2026, a notable step after a 21-19 start to the year.
The numbers are close enough to explain why this one looks tight on paper. PrizePicks listed Kalinskaya at 1.81x and Navarro at 1.92x, a sign that neither side is considered a clear favorite. Kalinskaya came into the tournament with a 24-17 record in 2026 and had gone 4-3 across Washington, Toronto and Cincinnati on hard courts before New York, a modest summer that makes her run stand out even more.
Navarro’s path has been stranger. She opened 2026 at 5-11 because of a health issue that slowed her start, then dealt with early exits in Washington, Toronto and Cincinnati before turning things around in the US Open draw. Her 6-3, 7-5 win over Muchova was the kind of result that can change the tone of a season, and it lifted her to 3-1 against top-10 opponents in 2026.
Kalinskaya, though, has carried a different concern through the event: the serve has been loose. She has committed 28 double faults in the tournament, including 14 against Svitolina, which is more than the 10 that would often be considered a rough match total in a best-of-three set contest. If that pattern holds on Sunday night, Navarro will have a chance to stay close even if Kalinskaya controls the baseline exchanges. The first real test comes at 8:40 p.m. ET, and the winner will leave Arthur Ashe Stadium with a place in the US Open quarterfinals within reach.
