The Toronto Blue Jays arrived at Blue Jays Vs Rays on Tuesday, Aug. 18, with a betting edge that had more to do with the mound than the standings. They were set for Game 1 in Tampa as road underdogs, but the matchup pointed to Toronto against a Tampa Bay Rays team that had been bled dry late in games.
That is why the search turns to this opener now. The Rays had allowed 26 runs across their last four games and used a combined five arms the previous night after Shane McClanahan got the early hook. Toronto, by contrast, was coming in well-rested after a day off, and the market had the Blue Jays at +105 to take advantage of the situation.
The case starts with Nick Martinez, whose numbers did not suggest much swing-and-miss protection for Tampa Bay. He carried a 14% strikeout rate and a 17% whiff rate this season, while the Blue Jays had already produced a.310 xBA and a.352 xwOBA against him. They were also striking out only 10% of the time against Martinez, a sign they were putting enough balls in play to make him work.
Jose Soriano was on the mound for Toronto, and the split in the matchup helped explain why the Blue Jays were being backed despite the road spot. Soriano had limited the Rays to a.245 xBA, and he had held Yandy Diaz to a.212 xBA over 14 at-bats. That gave Toronto a cleaner pitching path than Tampa Bay had on a night when its bullpen had already been pressed into service.
Ernie Clement was the bat singled out most clearly for the matchup. He owned a.368 average against Martinez's sinker and carried a.689 xSLG with a homer in seven at-bats against him, which is the kind of profile that fits a short series opener against a pitcher whose bat-missing has been limited. Clement also came off the bench and went 2-for-2 in Game 2 against the Yankees, a reminder that he was seeing the ball well enough to matter even without a long leash.
There was one catch for Toronto. Springer was still playing through a sore shoulder, and that can trim the kind of power a bettor is hoping for in a home-run look. Even so, the combination of a rested Blue Jays group, a taxed Rays bullpen and Martinez's contact profile left the opener leaning toward Toronto, with the total also flashing when the Over had gone 5-0 in the Blue Jays' last five games as a road underdog.
The setup leaves the opener clear enough: Toronto had the cleaner pitching and bullpen shape, while Tampa Bay had the strain. What happens next depends on whether Martinez can miss more bats than his season numbers suggest, because if he cannot, the Blue Jays should force the Rays back to a bullpen that has already been asked to cover too much too soon.
