The Chicago White Sox open a three-game home series against the Cincinnati Reds on Tuesday night, and the matchup begins with Nick Lodolo and Sean Burke lined up to start the opener at 7:40 p.m. ET. Lodolo is expected to be activated in advance of the game after spending time on the Injured List with blistering on his left hand.
That makes the first game more than a routine series opener for a Reds club that needs good innings and for a White Sox team that has suddenly put itself back into the division and playoff conversation. Cincinnati enters with a one-in-20 chance or less of making the playoffs, according to FanGraphs, while Chicago has used a strong stretch to climb to a 39.5% chance to win the division and a 51.5% chance to reach the postseason after taking two of three from Cleveland over the weekend.
Lodolo’s return carries the biggest weight in the series. He finished his rehab assignment last Wednesday, allowing three runs in 4.1 innings, and he had a 1.35 ERA across his final four starts before going on the Injured List. The numbers around him tell a more complicated story now: his season ERA is 4.60, and Statcast projects him at a 6.15 ERA with a.292 batting average, a reminder that a clean return is not the same as a guaranteed rebound.
There is also a wider season test hanging over both clubs. The Reds were 43-52 at the All-Star break, have ranked eighth-to-last in OPS overall and 15th in OPS since the break, and they are trying to survive a year that has already lost Hunter Greene for the season. The White Sox, by contrast, have built on a strong second half from last season and now have enough momentum that Munetaka Murakami, Chase Miedroth, Colson Montgomery and Miguel Vargas are being discussed as a young infield quartet that could keep the rise going if the bats hold up.
That is why Tuesday matters beyond one scheduled start. If Lodolo is activated as expected, the Reds get a chance to see whether one healthy night can steady a rotation that has been stretched thin; if he is not, the opener shifts again before the first pitch. Either way, the first game of Reds Vs White Sox arrives with postseason math, a return from injury and a thin margin for error all arriving at once.
