The Phoenix Mercury enter Friday night’s Mercury vs Sun matchup with momentum and a number that has caught the market’s eye: they are expected to cover against the Connecticut Sun after Connecticut dropped five straight. Phoenix has looked sharper since adding Kelsey Plum, while the Sun have been stuck at the wrong end of the standings and the wrong end of the box score.
That search interest is easy to understand on Friday, August 7. Plum has given the Mercury an immediate offensive lift, with Phoenix averaging 94.0 points per game in her first two contests and the guard making four threes in those games. She is averaging 19.5 points per game in her first two appearances with the team, and if she had been healthy all year she would have ranked third in the WNBA at 23.3 points per game. Kahleah Copper is also scoring 21.0 points per game, giving Phoenix a pair of threats the Sun have to account for.
The trade-deadline addition of Plum explains why the Mercury look different now. Phoenix did not simply stumble into a better stretch; the offense has become more efficient, shooting 45.7% from the floor in Plum’s first two games and averaging 94.0 points. Plum has also averaged 2.5 made threes per game this season, and Connecticut has allowed opponents to shoot 35.8% from deep. That combination matters in a game where pace should not be the escape hatch, since both teams sit in the bottom six in pace metrics.
Still, the improvement is not total. The Mercury are better with Plum, but they are only 12th in the league in offensive rating at 105.2, which keeps the matchup from looking like a runaway on paper. The Sun, meanwhile, are last in scoring at 79.8 points per game, last in effective field goal percentage at 47.3%, and last in offensive rating at 99.0. Their five-game skid included four losses by at least eight points, and they also entered at 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall.
That is why the injury report matters as much as the form. Mercury injury status listed no players, while Raegan Beers was out for the Sun and Brittney Griner was questionable. Phoenix has the cleaner setup and the hotter offense, but the Griner question leaves just enough uncertainty to keep the market from feeling automatic. If she is available, the Mercury’s edge becomes even harder for Connecticut to bridge on Friday night.
For the Sun, the issue is bigger than one game. They are being asked to slow a team that has found its scoring punch while solving problems that have lingered all season, and they have not shown a reliable answer during this losing streak. For Phoenix, the next test is whether Plum’s arrival keeps turning short-term improvement into something more durable than a two-game spike.
