NFL.com has put Christian McCaffrey and Justin Jefferson on a list of seven of the riskiest players to draft in 2026, a sharp reminder that the safest names on the board can still come with real draft-day danger. That matters now because fantasy managers are already weighing whether to spend an early pick on proven stars or chase less expensive upside.
McCaffrey’s case is the most jarring. He was the top-scoring player in PPR formats in 2025 with 416.6 points, according to NFL Pro, and he led the NFL with a career-high 413 touches. Even so, he is entering his age-30 season after averaging 3.9 yards per carry and finishing at minus-0.5 rushing yards over expected per attempt, the kind of profile that makes a player look dominant and fragile at the same time.
That is the price-versus-potential problem fantasy drafts always circle back to. McCaffrey can still win weeks, but the workload that powered him in 2025 also leaves little margin for error if the body starts to push back. He was also coming off an injury-ravaged 2024, which only deepens the concern that the best version of him may be harder to bank on over a full season.
Jefferson’s spot on the list is harder to process on raw talent alone. He tied for 30th among wideouts in points per game in 2025 with 11.9, and he is currently being drafted as WR5, but his outlook is tied to Minnesota’s quarterback situation, not his ability. The Vikings signed Kyler Murray, and Murray has produced just one top-20 fantasy wideout in his career, DeAndre Hopkins at WR4 in 2020.
There is a wrinkle in that logic, too. Trey McBride more than doubled his career touchdown total in 12 games after Murray went down last year, which hints at how much a quarterback change can reshape passing production, sometimes in ways no rankings can cleanly predict. Jefferson is still being drafted like an elite anchor, but the warning from NFL.com is that elite price and elite certainty are not the same thing.
The list did not stop with those two names, and that is part of the point: risk is not reserved for fringe picks. NFL.com said the seven-player group is meant to flag the draft decisions that can swing a season before it starts, and the unresolved question for managers now is whether the earliest names on that board are still worth the cost when the alternatives are cheaper and cleaner.
