The Phoenix Mercury arrived in Atlanta on Wednesday, Aug. 5 as a 5.5-point underdog, with Kelsey Plum giving them a reason to believe they can make a game of it. Plum scored 20 points in her Mercury debut, and Phoenix put up 106 points in that game, its second-highest output of the year.
That is why this matchup has drawn attention now. The Mercury are trying to turn one explosive night into something sturdier, while the Dream are trying to steady themselves after a five-game win streak ended in a 22-point loss to Vegas. Atlanta gave up a season-worst 109 points in that defeat, a jolt that changed the feel of a game that had looked comfortable only days earlier.
Plum did more than score. She went 3-for-5 from 3-point range, and her long-range shooting matters because she is hitting 39.5% from deep this year. She has also hit at least two 3-pointers in eight of her last nine games against Atlanta, which gives Phoenix a clear path to stress a defense that just showed how vulnerable it can be. Eric said the expectation is that Phoenix can keep it close, with Plum’s shooting helping the cause.
Atlanta still has the edge in the matchup history. The Dream have won four straight in this series, and Allisha Gray remains a difficult player to quiet even after scoring only seven points against Vegas. Gray is the league’s eighth-leading scorer and had reached at least 19 points in six of her previous eight games before that quiet night, while Thomas has been a strong rebound presence against the Dream, clearing eight boards or more in each of her last five appearances in the matchup.
There is also a wrinkle in the betting profile that leans against Atlanta. The Dream have failed to cover the spread in 10 straight games against Western Conference opponents, and Wednesday’s line asks them to do so again after a poor defensive showing. That is the friction inside this game: Atlanta has owned the series, but Phoenix arrives with a revived offense and a new scorer who already looked comfortable, while the Dream are coming off their worst defensive performance of the season.
The next step is simple. Can Phoenix turn Plum’s debut into a road result that matches the energy of its offense, or does Atlanta’s series edge hold even after the stumble against Vegas?
