The Toronto Tempo visit the Minnesota Lynx on Tuesday, July 28, and the biggest change is that Napheesa Collier is back for Minnesota. The game is set for 8 p.m. ET at Target Center, with the Lynx listed as 14.5-point favorites.
That is why tempo vs lynx is getting attention now: Collier returned to bolster Minnesota to full strength after missing months, then showed no rust by scoring 24 points and shooting 45% from the floor in her first game back. For a team that had already been leading the WNBA championship odds before her return, the timing matters because Minnesota can now lean on its best scorer in a matchup that carries real scoring expectations.
There is also a clear mismatch underneath the spread. Minnesota owns a 112.4 offensive rating and a 57.9% effective field-goal percentage, while Toronto has the WNBA's worst defensive rating at 113.9 and allows 92.9 points per game, the second-most in the league. That is one reason the total should not get much bigger than 185.5 for an Over play, even with Toronto's 16-8 Over record and the Over hitting in eight of Minnesota's last nine games.
Toronto's numbers are good for bettors who like game flow, but they come with a catch. The Tempo have been the league's best Over team this season and the Over is 7-0 in their last seven road games, yet Brittney Sykes remains out and the defense has not held up. Minnesota, by contrast, had already been the stronger side before Collier returned, and the gap only widens when she is on the floor and scoring at the level that has defined her recent seasons.
That is what makes Tuesday's game more than a routine post-All-Star meeting. TSN and Victory+ are listed as viewing options, and the next thing to know is simple: if Collier is back at full force again, the Lynx should be the sharper team tonight, while Toronto has to prove its attack can keep pace without its defense dragging everything down.
