The Cleveland Guardians open a three-game road series against the Tampa Bay Rays on Friday night, and Joey Cantillo gets the ball against Shane McLanahan. First pitch is set for 7:10 p.m. EST at Tropicana Field, with the game streaming on MLB.TV.
Cantillo enters at 8-5 with a 3.74 ERA, while McLanahan is 8-6 with a 3.16 ERA. That pitching matchup is the reason this one is drawing attention, but it comes with a wrinkle for Cleveland: Angel Martinez is out with a foot injury, leaving the Guardians short a regular option while the Rays appear to be at full health.
Cantillo’s last turn came last Sunday against the Pittsburgh Pirates, when he worked five innings, allowed four runs and struck out seven batters. That outing showed enough swing-and-miss to keep him in line for another start, even after the Guardians dropped two straight games against the Minnesota Twins before arriving at this series.
There is some support behind Tampa Bay, too. Dimers ran 10,000 simulations of Guardians vs. Rays and landed on the Rays as the more likely winner at Tropicana Field. Its model also gives the Guardians a 61.1% chance to cover at +1.5, while the over/under of 7.5 runs is split evenly at 50% both ways.
For Cleveland, the first question is whether Cantillo can turn a solid strikeout total into a cleaner outing. For the Rays, the edge looks like depth and availability, and that makes Friday's opener more than just the start of a series. It is a test of whether the Guardians can absorb an injury absence and still keep pace from the first pitch.
