Jack Flaherty gets the ball for the Detroit Tigers on Monday, July 20, when they open a series against the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field. Detroit is listed as a +101 underdog, even after Flaherty has allowed only two earned runs over his last three outings.
That recent run is backed by sharper underlying numbers than the betting line might suggest. Over those three starts, Flaherty has posted a 2.92 FIP and allowed 0.54 HR/9, with his four-seamer accounting for 49% of his pitches. More than half of the Chicago Cubs lineup has a Run Value of one or lower against the fastball, which gives Detroit a path if Flaherty keeps living at the top of the zone.
The pitching matchup is only part of why this game is drawing attention. Jameson Taillon is set to start for the Chicago Cubs in his first outing since early June, and he arrives with a 6.31 FIP in 2026. The Cubs bullpen has also carried a 5.20 xERA over the last two weeks, a number that is poor enough to leave little margin if Taillon cannot cover much of the game.
Detroit’s offense has not exactly forced the issue, either. The Tigers have a 95 wRC+ and a.185 ISO over the last two weeks, while the Cubs have been better with a 112 wRC+ and a.180 ISO across their last nine contests. Even so, Detroit’s bullpen has quietly held up, posting a 2.43 FIP over its last 30 innings and not allowing a home run in that span.
Conditions at Wrigley Field add another layer. Temperatures are expected to sit around 83 degrees early and near 81 later, with winds of 15 to 16 mph and rain chances of 16% to 24%. That matters in a game where the Detroit Tigers have gone Under in 21 of their last 30 games, and where a modest breeze can change the shape of a contact-heavy night. If Flaherty keeps Chicago in check, the price on Detroit will look better than it sounds on paper.
