Cal Raleigh began the season hurt, and the Seattle Mariners spent the first half paying for it. Manny Acta said Raleigh did not get enough reps with Team USA at the World Baseball Classic, then tried to make up for it and over exerted himself, straining his oblique before the season could settle in.
That matters now because the Mariners reached the All-Star break a game under.500 after opening the year as favorites in the American League according to FanGraphs. Raleigh was supposed to be part of the push that made that projection look reasonable. Instead, he opened with a 62 wRC+ before the injury and has been at 88 wRC+ since returning in mid-June, a swing that still leaves him short of what Seattle needed from one of its two best bats.
Raleigh’s start was not a quiet slump. Acta said he tried to tough guy his way through the first part of the season before landing on the injured list after a long 0-for. That detail helps explain why the numbers lagged so far behind the expectations. A catcher who was projected to be one of the top five hitters in the majors simply could not force production out of a body that was already compromised.
The wider problem for Seattle is that Raleigh was not alone. He and Julio Rodríguez entered the year as the top batter duo in the majors, and each was projected by Steamer in the top five. Julio got off to his best start ever at the plate, then slid, then began to heat up again at the end of the month before a concussion sent him to the injured list after Nolan Schanuel drilled him in the back of the head while running the bases. Rodríguez also slumped in the outfield before turning it around defensively in June, but the bat has still been uneven. Together, the two have given the Mariners far less than forecast.
That is the part that keeps Seattle from being able to blame the whole offense. The Mariners have an even 100 wRC+ because the rest of the lineup has been fine, and the club has looked about as good as it was last year. Randy Arozarena, Dominic Canzone and Cole Young have had good performances. Josh Naylor, Victor Robles and Leo Rivas have had bad performances. J.P. Crawford has been hot and cold and cannot play defense. The contrast is the point: this is not a lineup collapse, just a top-end shortage.
Seattle also built some of its preseason optimism around Brendan Donovan, the move that helped push the Mariners into the AL favorites tier this spring, but he simply has not been on the field. So the team that looked deep enough to challenge in the AL is still waiting for the two hitters who were supposed to set the pace. If Raleigh and Rodríguez do not get closer to their projections, the first half looks less like a stumble than a warning.
