The Arizona Diamondbacks reached LA on Tuesday needing more than a good trip. They had just split with the Padres, slipped below.500 and moved on to face the division-leading Los Angeles Dodgers in a series that could tell them whether this run still has enough life to matter.
That urgency starts with Eduardo Rodriguez. Since the start of May, the left-hander has given up more than two runs only twice, and the Diamondbacks have won nine of his twelve starts. His ERA has dropped into the low twos, the kind of number that makes him look like a staff anchor on any night he takes the ball.
But the numbers do not line up neatly. Rodriguez’s FIP sits at 4.00 flat, a reminder that the run prevention has been better than the underlying indicators. He has been difficult to score against lately, and the team has ridden that stretch, but the gap between the ERA and the FIP leaves open the question of whether the early-May run is dominance or a stretch that is already being propped up by favorable results.
The matchup around him is not forgiving. Shohei Ohtani is in the picture as one of the best pitchers in baseball and, depending on the season, a great hitter as well as a good to very good pitcher. Yamamoto has also been great this year for the Dodgers, though his FIP is about one run higher than his ERA, another clue that the numbers behind the surface can be a little less tidy than the standings suggest. For Arizona, Pfaadt has been a bright spot since returning to the rotation, going 5+ innings in each of his first two starts back and allowing one run in the first and none against the Padres in the second.
That leaves the middle of the rotation carrying more of the burden. Gallen pitched four decent innings after blowing the game in his last start, and Sheehan has been inconsistent over the past month or so, with Dodgers games started by Sheehan ending in losses in four of his last five starts. His last two outings were steadier, both against the Padres, with him pitching into the fifth inning and allowing one run in each, but that is still not the kind of certainty that settles a division series.
For Arizona, the next few days may be one of the last real chances to show it belongs in the buyer conversation at the trade deadline. The offense is slumping, the club is below.500, and the best bet may be the Gallen game, which is not exactly the profile of a team that has room to waste a series. If Rodriguez keeps doing what he has done since May, the Diamondbacks can still make this trip matter. If he cannot, the trip to LA will feel less like a test than a verdict.
