France and Spain will meet in a World Cup semifinal on Tuesday in Dallas, a matchup that puts one reigning finalist against the reigning European champion with a place in the final on the line. For Kylian Mbappé, it also comes with a record chase still alive: he has 20 career World Cup goals, one shy of Lionel Messi’s all-time mark.
That is why this semifinal is drawing so much attention now. France have been ruthless through the tournament, winning five of their six matches by multiple goals and reaching a third straight semifinal. Didier Deschamps’ side beat Morocco 2-0 in Boston, and Mbappé missed a penalty, scored anyway, then set up Ousmane Dembélé six minutes later. He has scored in every knockout game France have played, and his 12 knockout-stage goals already underline how quickly he keeps moving toward the record.
Spain arrive with a different kind of momentum. They are unbeaten in 36 matches, one short of Italy’s all-time mark of 37, and Tuesday gives them their first semifinal since 2010. Yet their route has not been smooth. Against Belgium in Los Angeles, they had 68% possession and generated more than two expected goals, but still needed an 88th-minute goal to escape. Belgium produced only 0.38 expected goals, Charles De Ketelaere’s header before halftime was the first goal Spain had conceded all summer, and Thibaut Courtois limped off in tears while Senne Lammens spilled the save that allowed Mikel Merino to score the rebound.
Lamine Yamal is the figure who sits closest to Spain’s larger question. The 18-year-old tore his hamstring scoring a penalty against Celta Vigo in April and missed the rest of Barcelona’s title run, but he has still played six matches at this World Cup. Whether he is fully back to the level Spain need is part of what makes this semifinal feel unfinished before it has even started. France have the form, Mbappé has the chase, and Spain have the run. Tuesday will show which of those carries more weight.
