NBC Sports has put Wilyer Abreu on its list of hitters who could get a summer power surge, betting that home run totals should rise as the weather warms and the baseball carries farther. The point is not that Abreu has already broken out, but that the next stretch of the season may be the kind that rewards the same batted-ball traits he already shows.
That interest lands now because the case for more power is built on timing as much as talent. Home runs tend to increase in the summer months, and the physics are simple: warm air is less dense, so the ball can travel farther. This year, the ball itself has also changed since the start of the season because of a manufacturing issue, and the result has been less drag and batted balls flying about five feet farther than they did in the early months of the season.
The search was narrowed to hitters since May 20th, with a minimum of 40 plate appearances, and the league average in that window was a 7.6% barrel rate, 18,7% pull air rate, and a 12.6% HR/FB rate. Against that backdrop, Wilyer Abreu sits in the group NBC Sports thinks can gain the most if conditions keep tilting toward offense, because the best way to ride a summer power push is to already be making damaging contact and lifting the ball with authority.
There is a catch in the list, though. Some of the hitters singled out are not waiting for a surge so much as already living through one. Jackson Merrill and Dylan Crews each had six home runs in 42 games since May 20th, while Crews also posted a 47.1% hard-hit rate, a.262 xBA and a.461 xSLG over that stretch. That means the list is not a clean forecast of who has been quiet and who is due; in some cases, it is a snapshot of hitters who are already producing and could keep going.
The underlying signs still matter. Jorge Soler and Luke Raley have been pulling the ball in the air far more than average and barreling it well above league norms, Dalton Rushing had a 12.2% barrel rate since May 20th and was getting the ball to the pull side in the air, and Raleigh had nine home runs through 61 games this season after hitting 60 last season. He also had a 61.5% pull rate since May 20th, up from 55.5% last season, a reminder that the next power jump may come from hitters who are already shaping contact the right way.
That is why Abreu’s name matters in this particular window. The summer weather and the modified ball may add distance for everyone, but the players most likely to cash in are the ones already hitting the ball hard, pulling it in the air and missing the part of the season when the ball carried less. If Abreu fits that profile, the next couple of months could turn a watch-list mention into something much more concrete.
