Opta has put Belgium at 30.49% to beat Spain on Friday in the World Cup quarterfinals, a figure that leaves Rudi Garcia’s side as the clear underdog in one of the tournament’s most consequential matches. If Belgium gets through, Opta gives it a 10.04% chance of reaching the final and a 3.70% chance of lifting the trophy in New York on July 19.
That prediction matters because Spain arrives as the reigning European champion and has not conceded a goal since the start of the tournament. In a knockout match like this, that kind of defensive start is part of why Spain is the favorite before kickoff and why Belgium’s path looks so narrow. Opta reaches its projections by running thousands of simulations built from statistical data and past results, turning one match into a tournament-wide forecast.
The numbers also show how far Belgium sits from the top of the title race even if it wins this one. Opta places France first with a 26.91% chance to win the World Cup, ahead of Spain at 21.30%, Argentina at 17.38% and England at 16.99%. Belgium is behind Norway at 6.56%, Morocco at 3.92% and Switzerland at 3.24%, a reminder that beating Spain would be only the beginning of a much harder climb.
There is still a gap between the model and the moment. Belgium is being asked to win a match that can define its tournament, but the forecast says even clearing Spain leaves only a 10.04% route to the final and an even smaller shot at the title. For Garcia, the cleanest reading is also the hardest one: Belgium can still change the story on Friday, but the numbers say it will have to do it against a team that has not yet let a goal in.
