Spain has moved ahead of Argentina to become the second favorite to win the World Cup after beating Portugal 1-0 on Monday, but France still sits alone at the top of the market. On DraftKings, Spain is now +370 and Argentina is +400, while France remains +180 on DraftKings and FanDuel and +175 at BetMGM.
The shift matters because Spain did more than win; it kept another clean sheet and has yet to allow a goal in the tournament. That gives La Roja a cleaner case than Argentina, which needed extra time to beat Cape Verde 3-2 and had earlier trailed Egypt by two goals for more than 75 minutes before winning 3-2. In a market that prices elimination rounds by margin and momentum as much as by name, that kind of run can change the order quickly.
France’s place as the favorite also reflects how the bracket has settled. The quarterfinals of the 2026 FIFA World Cup are now set, and six of the final eight teams are from Europe. France meets Morocco in the next round, while Norway, Morocco, Belgium and Switzerland are the four opponents listed for the top four favorites. England is fourth at the major sportsbooks at just shorter than 5-to-1.
There is still a clear line between the top two and the rest. Spain has climbed over Argentina, but it has not caught France, and the numbers show that gap is still meaningful: 4-1 for the broader pack, 27-to-1 for Belgium and 30-to-1 for Switzerland, the longest odds among the eight teams still standing. Argentina is the defending champion, but right now the betting market is rewarding the team that has won without conceding more than the one that has had to scramble through two close escapes.
For Spain, the next test is simple even if the path is not. Keep the shutout streak going, and the market could narrow again. Give up the first goal, and the case that moved Mikel Merino and Spain into second place becomes easier to question.
