FanGraphs opened its draft season with a blunt forecast: Grady Emerson to the Chicago White Sox at No. 1, Vahn Lackey to the Tampa Bay Rays at No. 2, and Roch Cholowsky to the Minnesota Twins at No. 3. It was the first mock draft of the year, and it immediately drew a line around the three names most likely to shape the top of the 2026 MLB amateur draft.
That matters now because the early board is already being read as a three-player race. FanGraphs said the top tier is generally seen as three deep and that the White Sox, Rays and Twins are the clubs most likely to come away with those players in some order. In other words, the first mock draft did not just place names on teams; it framed the opening argument about how the class is expected to break.
The projection gives the White Sox the first swing even though FanGraphs noted they also like Cholowsky. That is the part worth watching. The logic for Emerson is upside: FanGraphs said he might have the best ceiling of the trio if he gets stronger than expected. Cholowsky carries a different kind of risk, since FanGraphs said he might strike out more than expected in pro ball. The choice is not simply about who is best right now. It is about which profile a club is willing to trust at the very top.
Lackey fits the Rays in a different way. FanGraphs said he values throwing and defense, would move quickly, and would help a perpetually competitive roster. That is why the match reads as so clean on paper. The Rays have been looking for their catcher of the future for a long time, and FanGraphs described the pairing as a match made in heaven for both player and team. That kind of fit matters in a draft where slot value and timeline can matter almost as much as raw talent.
The tension sits with the teams behind the top three. FanGraphs projected Jackson Flora to the San Francisco Giants at No. 4, but it also noted that the Giants traded for Cleveland’s comp pick in May as part of the Patrick Bailey deal. That move may have been about more than simply adding a pick; a comp pick gives a club another route into the part of the board where the top names are expected to disappear. If Emerson, Lackey and Cholowsky really are gone in some order, the rest of the class is forced to chase the fallout.
FanGraphs also said the Twins seem likely to take whichever of the top three players remains, which in this projection is Cholowsky. That leaves the White Sox question hanging over the whole exercise. They have already tried to sign Cholowsky out of high school, but the mock still sends Emerson to Chicago. For now, that is the story of the first mock draft of 2026: three players at the front, three teams tied to them, and one No. 1 pick that still looks open to argument. FanGraphs said it had hard-ranked the 40+ FV and above players on The Board and could update the mock on Saturday morning if enough new information emerges.
