The New York Liberty host the Dallas Wings tonight at Barclays Center in a Top-5 WNBA matchup, and Breanna Stewart enters as the player most likely to swing it New York’s way. She is coming off 36 points and has averaged 31.3 PRA, a pace that has produced 32 or more PRA in 11 of 20 games.
That is why Wings Vs Liberty is drawing so much attention now. Stewart already posted 28 in the first meeting between the teams this season, and the Liberty will need that kind of force again with Satou Sabally sidelined and Leonie Fiebich questionable. Sabrina Ionescu has also been steady, putting up 25 and 29 PRA in her last two outings, giving New York another scoring path if the game opens up the way many expect.
The matchup has the feel of a shootout because Dallas has enough firepower to answer. Paige Bueckers is averaging 20.3 points per game in her sophomore season, while shooting 52.2% from the field and 39.1% from beyond the arc. She has scored 21 or more points in five straight games and 10 of 20 overall, including 24 points against the Liberty in their first meeting. She has also been more productive on the road, where she is averaging 20.9 points per game compared with 19.4 at home.
That is the part that keeps this from looking like a simple home favorite spot for New York. Dallas covered the spread in four straight head-to-head matchups with the Liberty, even though the market leans toward New York at home, and the earlier 15-point Dallas win still hangs over the rematch. The Liberty’s recent run matters too: they beat the Minnesota Lynx and the Las Vegas Aces to win the Commissioner's Cup, which is a reminder of how high their ceiling can be when Stewart and Ionescu are both pushing the pace.
Tonight gives New York a clean chance to answer the one result that still lingers and to do it against a Dallas team that has repeatedly made this matchup awkward. If Stewart carries the load again, the Liberty should have the edge. If Bueckers keeps her scoring streak alive, the final could be closer than the home setting suggests.
